Use of agent-based modelling to validate hurricane evacuation planning

Lumbroso, D. and Simm, J.D. and Davison, M. and White, K. and Durden, S. (2015) Use of agent-based modelling to validate hurricane evacuation planning. In: Coastal structures and solutions to coastal disasters joint conference 2015, 9-11 September 2015, Boston, USA.

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Abstract

Justification for evacuation and evacuation planning is sometimes questioned and there is a need develop approaches which justify the planning and associated expenditure. To this end, it was decided to carry out a pilot evaluation of the impact of a Hurricane Storm surge flooding on Brunswick, GA using a dynamic Agent Based Model that represents people's interaction with a flood and provides estimates of the number of people that are likely to be killed as a result of a flood event, as well as the time that is required for them to evacuate the area at risk. Climate change increase of 3ft in mean sea level would increase the population at risk in Brunswick by 20% for a category 4 hurricane. The modelling shows that for a category 4 hurricane managed evacuation can significantly reduce the number of fatalities.

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