Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment

Stripling, S. and Panzeri, M. and Blanco, B. and Rossington, K. and Sayers, P. and Borthwick, A. (2017) Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment. Coastal Engineering, 121. pp. 129-144.

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Rapid deterministic modelling of shoreline evolution at regional and coastal-scheme scale enables Monte-Carlo simulations by which long-term shoreline statistics can be estimated. This paper describes UnaLinea, a fast, accurate finite difference solver of the one-line sediment continuity equation. The model is verified for the evolution of an initially straight shoreline of a plane beach subject to regular breaking waves at constant angle of incidence in the presence of either a groyne or a continuous single-point feed of sediment. Grid convergence and stability tests are used to obtain accurate, stable results, with satisfactory computational efficiency. Influences of wave input filtering and event-based sediment loading are considered. The rapid deterministic model is applied to Monte-Carlo simulations of the evolution of the west coast of Calabria, Italy for different scenarios including increased sediment load from a river and selected beach nourishment. The potential role of probabilistic shoreline evolution in regional coastal flood-risk assessment is explored through application to an idealised stretch of the Holderness coastline, U.K., where flood depths and expected damage are estimated for a 1000 year return period event.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: shoreline evolution; flood/erosion-risk; probabilistic modelling; wave filtering; regional scale
Subjects: Coasts > General
Divisions: Coastal
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2020 09:53
Last Modified: 19 May 2020 13:05

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