D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Thu Vietnam driven by Earth Observations

Hopkin, A. (2019) D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Thu Vietnam driven by Earth Observations. In: FOSS4GUK 2019, 19-20 September 2019, Edinburgh, Scotland.

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Abstract

D-MOSS, Dengue MOsquito Simulation from Satellites, is a dengue fever early warning system for Vietnam being developed in a project funded by the UK Space Agency’s International Partnerships Programme. The D-MOSS project is developing a suite of innovative tools that will allow public health authorities to identify areas of high risk for disease epidemics before an outbreak occurs, in order to target resources to reduce spreading of epidemics and improve disease control. Beneficiaries will be enabled to issue alerts for dengue fever and provide assessments of vector-borne disease risk under future climate and land-use change scenarios. The D-MOSS architecture relies on open and non-proprietary software and on flexible deployment into platforms including cloud-based virtual storage and application processing. The tools produced will also be used to increase the understanding of climate change-related health risks during a period when Vietnam is developing an updated National Adaptation Plan in line with its Paris Agreement obligations. Before 1970 only nine countries had experienced severe dengue epidemics. Today the disease is endemic in 141 countries, affecting 390 million people and with a global annual cost estimated at almost US$9 billion, which is three times that of cholera and over four times that of gastroenteritis. Since 2000, there has been an increase of over 100% in the number of cases of dengue fever in Vietnam, with 185,000 cases occurring in 2017 alone, and there is currently no system for forecasting future dengue outbreaks. The D-MOSS project is developing a forecasting system in which EO datasets are combined with weather forecasts and a hydrological model to predict the likelihood of future dengue epidemics up to eight months in advance. D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature. The approach integrates historical stressor datasets with each other and with historic dengue fever incidents, which are then input into a statistical model to provide forecasts based on future seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts. The D-MOSS project is within the first year of its three-year term and is currently focused on platform and model development, while gathering the key input data and engaging with the Vietnamese government to ensure that all components are fit for purpose. The portrayal system is designed to communicate the dengue and water availability forecasts to the Vietnamese Ministries of Health and Natural Resources and Environment. A user interface will also incorporate supporting information on recommended actions, provided by the decision makers and based on the forecasts and associated uncertainty. The D-MOSS project is led by HR Wallingford, working with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the Met Office and Oxford Policy Management in the UK, and with the following international partners: the United Nations Development Programme, the World Health Organisation, the Vietnamese Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, the Pasteur Institute Ho Chi Minh City, and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Vietnam.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: Water > General
Divisions: Water
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email i.services@hrwallingford.com
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2020 09:54
Last Modified: 02 Apr 2020 09:54
URI: http://eprints.hrwallingford.com/id/eprint/1366

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