D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Vietnam driven by Earth Observations

Lumbroso, D. and Tsarouchi, G. (2019) D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Vietnam driven by Earth Observations. In: AGU Fall Meeting 2019, 9-13 December 2019, San Francisco, USA.

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Abstract

Dengue is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne viral infection in the world today. It is present in over 150 countries, meaning that around 40 percent of the world’s population now live in countries where dengue is a daily risk. It has been estimated that annually dengue affects 390 million people and has a global cost of almost US$9 billion per year. Since 2000, there has been an increase of over 100% in the number of cases of dengue fever in Vietnam, with approximately 185,000 cases occurring in 2017 alone. In Vietnam, there is currently no system for forecasting future dengue outbreaks. D-MOSS is the first fully integrated dengue fever forecasting system incorporating Earth Observation data and seasonal climate forecasts to issue warnings on a routine basis. D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature with data on past dengue fever incidents. This information is used to develop statistical models of disease incidence, that can then be used to forecast dengue outbreaks based on seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts as well as other factors. An overview of the D-MOSS web page and the forecasts it produces are shown in the accompanying figure. D-MOSS takes the form of a web-based platform. The system’s architecture is based on open and non-proprietary software, where possible, and on flexible deployment into platforms including cloud-based virtual storage and application processing. D-MOSS is currently being piloted in Vietnam. When the system becomes fully operational it should assist the Vietnamese Ministry of Health, to meet its goal of actively to forecast, detect early and prevent the occurrence of epidemics, especially major ones. The project is funded by the UK Space Agency’s International Partnership Programme and we have been recently awarded with an extension to our grant to implement D-MOSS to another six countries in South East Asia.

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