Grand Bahama and Eleuthera hurricane surge pilot study

Grey, S. and Liu, Y. and Turnbull, M. and Simmons, J. (2023) Grand Bahama and Eleuthera hurricane surge pilot study. In: 3rd International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges, and Coastal Hazards, 1-6 October 2023, Notre Dame, Indiana.

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In a pilot study for The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, a storm surge model and atlas were developed covering the islands of Grand Bahama and Eleuthera. The hydrodynamic model, TELEMAC2D, is used to simulate the response of water level to tide and the wind and atmospheric pressure fields of hurricanes and subsequent inundation over land. The model is used by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology to predict storm surge and flooding over the islands of Grand Bahama and Eleuthera for incoming hurricanes to assist in preparation for and management of hurricane surge events. The model has been validated for its representation of water level and against tide gauge measurements during four historical hurricanes: Irene, Sandy, Matthew and Dorian. The comparisons show that the model is capable of representing hurricane surge with good accuracy. The storm surge model was also applied in a hurricane surge and inundation risk assessment for both Grand Bahama and Eleuthera to create an atlas of flood scenarios. 10,000 years of synthetic hurricane tracks were generated based on a statistical analysis of historical hurricanes from 1979 to 2020 inclusive. Predictions of flood extents and depths were mapped for return periods of up to 1000 years for present day conditions and three climate change scenarios to 2100. The flooding experienced over Grand Bahama during Hurricane Dorian in 2019 was estimated to have a return period of up to approximately 450 years. Under the climate change scenarios the likelihood of flooding similar to Hurricane Dorian was estimated to be approximately 1.7 times more likely in 2050 and up to 3.4 times as likely in 2100 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The storm surge maps can be used by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology and other government agencies for emergency management, planning of infrastructure and building resilience in response to climate change. The pilot study, including storm surge model and atlas, provide a template for further expansion to cover other inhabited islands of The Bahamas.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Subjects: Coasts > General
Divisions: Coastal
Depositing User: Helen Stevenson
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2023 14:34
Last Modified: 12 Jul 2023 14:34

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