Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks

Lumbroso, D. and White, C. and Brown, E. and Rao Kolusu, S. (2025) Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks. npj Natural Hazards, 2.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00157-5

Abstract

Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFWs) are crucial for disaster risk reduction; however, most systems focus on single hazards, overlooking the complex interactions of multi-risk events. This siloed approach can underestimate impacts, especially when hazards occur simultaneously or sequentially. Developing multi-risk IbFW systems requires interdisciplinary collaboration, improved modelling, more impact data and clearer terminology. Analysis of historical disasters shows that multi-hazard events cause disproportionate economic losses. Advancing IbFW systems demands pragmatic innovation, robust datasets, and inclusive strategies to better reflect real-world hazard complexity.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Open Access
Subjects: Floods > General
Divisions: Floods
Depositing User: Helen Stevenson
Date Deposited: 05 Jan 2026 09:37
Last Modified: 05 Jan 2026 09:37
URI: http://eprints.hrwallingford.com/id/eprint/1717

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