A comparison of marginal and joint extremes predicted from synthesised wave and water level data

Hawkes, P. and Gouldby, B.P. and Sun, W. and Tawn, J. and Hames, D. and Reeve, D. and Blackman, D. and Sproson, R. and Mavronasos, K. (2004) A comparison of marginal and joint extremes predicted from synthesised wave and water level data. In: Institute of Mathematics and its Applications: Conference on Flood Risk Assessment, September 2004, Bath.

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The joint probability of large waves and high water levels is important in estimating coastal flood risk. The greatest risk to coastal defences tends to occur at times of unusually high water levels combined with large waves. Without joint probability analysis (or very long field records) it would be impossible to make reliable estimates of the probability of occurrence of such combined conditions. Defra funded the development and testing of a rigorous joint probability analysis technique called JOIN-SEA. Part of the research programme involved the testing of field and synthetic data sets, each comprising about ten years of records of high tide level, wave height and wave period. Two further data sets were prepared by one of the authors as a blind test to be performed by each of the other authors, without knowledge of the underlying distributions. The intentions were to test each other’s abilities to conduct the analysis, to look at the range of answers that could be produced amongst a group of experienced analysts, and to test the relative importance of the various sources of uncertainty. Results obtained by different analysts are compared, both with each other and with the target results underlying the two synthetic data sets. Results are presented in terms of marginal extremes for wave heights and water levels, joint exceedence extremes, and extreme values of overtopping rate and ‘total water level’.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: Coasts > Coastal erosion and flooding
Coasts > General
Divisions: Coastal
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email i.services@hrwallingford.com
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2020 09:46
Last Modified: 21 May 2020 08:02
URI: http://eprints.hrwallingford.com/id/eprint/512

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