Thames estuary - Establishing a robust flood system model to support engineering investment decisions

Sayers, P. and Tarrant, O. and Gouldby, B.P. and Kavanagh, D. and Panzeri, M. (2006) Thames estuary - Establishing a robust flood system model to support engineering investment decisions. In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4- 6 July 2006, University of York, UK.

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The Environment Agency is currently planning its long-term approach to Flood Risk Management within the Thames Estuary. This is a significant and multi-dimensional challenge. Adapting and managing existing defences, barriers, gates and pumps as well as building new ones are likely to have a significant role as part of this future. This paper explores the initial development and first application of a system model capable of supporting a risk-based targeting of investment. The paper demonstrates how a regional system analysis tool – based on the RASP High Level analysis framework - can be used to provide an assessment of both flood risk and the performance of different response strategies under future scenarios. The practical issues explored in this paper include: Data gathering – including hierarchical approaches to the use of data and the attribution of data uncertainties. Defence performance analysis – how national scale and local analysis of defence failure can be integrated. Quantifying the individual defence contribution to risk (within the context of over 480km of defences within the tidal Thames) The paper concludes with a practical insight to the use and utility of system models in the context of an active and complex decision making process.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: Floods > Coastal erosion and flooding
Floods > River management
Floods > Flood resilience
Floods > General
Divisions: Floods
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2020 09:47
Last Modified: 20 May 2020 11:00

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