Evacuation and loss of life modelling to enhance emergency response

Lumbroso, D. and Tagg, A. (2011) Evacuation and loss of life modelling to enhance emergency response. In: International Symposium on Urban Flood Risk Management, 21 to 23 September 2011, Graz, Austria.

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Abstract

Recent major flood events from around the world have highlighted the importance of an effective emergency response in minimising loss of life and optimising the resources available. This paper describes the development of a dynamic, agent based, Life Safety Model (LSM) to estimate the flood risk to people in terms of loss of life and injuries, evacuation times and how improvements in emergency planning can reduce both of these. The LSM is the only tool that is currently available that allows for a dynamic interaction between people, vehicles, buildings and the floodwave. The model takes an approach based on the latest available physical equations rather than empirically deduced mortality rates and evacuation times. The model includes traffic and pedestrian models and also the ability to simulate the effectiveness of the dissemination of flood warnings on people’s behaviour. This paper will give a general overview of the capabilities and features of the LSM, and will illustrate this with a range of applications. These will include: a dam failure in France, a major coastal surge in the Thames Estuary in 1953 and Pacific tsunami impacts for western Canada.

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