From partial coverage to actionable insight: a hybrid smart meter method for DMA leakage estimation

Smart metering is reshaping leakage management by equipping utilities with granular consumption data to support more resilient, evidence-based operation of district metered areas (DMAs). In a system with 100% smart meter penetration, a mass balance approach could be used to detect leakage at DMA level more accurately. This paper examines how smart meter implementation can strengthen leakage assessment under one of the most persistent constraints: incomplete meter coverage.
The principal contribution is an original hybrid leakage calculation method designed to address partial smart meter penetration while preserving the objective of approximating a full mass balance. By combining measured smart meter consumption with minimum night flow principles, the method derives leakage estimates from available data and reduces reliance on static allowances and broad assumptions commonly embedded in conventional night flow analysis. This provides a practical route for utilities to extract operational value from smart meter data during phased deployment, without waiting for full coverage or ideal data continuity.
The work also investigates the characterisation of DMA consumption curves and legitimate night flow as key components for separating baseline customer demand from potential leakage signals. Findings indicate that the hybrid approach can deliver more stable and adaptive leakage estimates, better capture temporal variability in demand, and strengthen interpretation of network behaviour for operational decision-making.
Smart metering represents both an instrumentation upgrade and a strategic foundation for data-driven leakage management and reduction which faces many implementation challenges: data completeness, communication reliability, interoperability with existing systems, analytical capability process large datasets effectively.
A phased implementation pathway, supported by robust data governance and fit-for-purpose analytical methods, can accelerate sustainable utility operations and deliver earlier, more reliable leakage reduction outcomes. This phased approach is particularly relevant for Caribbean water utilities, where high non-revenue water, constrained operational resources, exposure to droughts and hurricanes, and the need for climate-resilient infrastructure make early, actionable leakage insight especially valuable.