Millennial to annual volume changes in the Humber Estuary

Analysis of stratigraphic records and historic charts has allowed comparison of Holocene and historical rates of accommodation space change in the Humber Basin. Apparent rate differences are explained using a morphological model and an analytical approach to separate out the effect of differing forcing signals. This understanding is then used to construct a simple behavioural model of how estuary volumes change over time that is consistent over millennial to annual time-scales. Given the desire to promote the sustainable management of estuaries, the approach provides a means to identify the natural variability that should be anticipated. Distinguishing such signals from influences such as sea-level rise is also important for the proper attribution of impacts due to climate change.