A review of the understanding of uncertainty in a flood forecasting system and the available methods of dealing with it

Boelee, L. and Lumbroso, D. and Samuels, P.G. and Stephens, E. and Cloke, H. (2017) A review of the understanding of uncertainty in a flood forecasting system and the available methods of dealing with it. In: IAHR World Congress 2017, 13 - 18 August 2017, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

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Abstract

The increased availability and application of probabilistic weather forecasts in flood forecasting means that the uncertainty arising from the precipitation forecast can be assessed. This has led to a wider interest in how uncertainty is affecting flood forecast systems. In literature there are general techniques and principles available on how to deal with uncertainty. However, there are no of well-accepted guidelines on the implementation these principles and techniques. There is neither coherent terminology nor a systematic approach which means that it is difficult and perhaps even impossible to assess the characteristics and limitations of uncertainty quantification methods. Selecting the most appropriate method to match a specific flood forecasting system is therefore a challenge. The main findings of this review are that there are remaining mathematical and theoretical challenges in uncertainty quantification methods and that this leads to the use of assumptions which in turn could lead to a misrepresentation of the predictive uncertainty.

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