Modelling mass evacuations to improve the emergency planning for floods in the UK, the Netherlands and North America

Lumbroso, D. and Johnstone, W. and de Bruijn, K. and Di Mauro, M. and Tagg, A. (2010) Modelling mass evacuations to improve the emergency planning for floods in the UK, the Netherlands and North America. In: International Conference on Emergency Preparedness (InterCEPt), the Challenges of Mass Evacuation, 21-23 September 2010, University of Birmingham, UK. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Whether to implement a mass evacuation of people from an area at risk of flooding can be a major issue for emergency managers. The modelling of the evacuation process generated by a forecast flood is important for those responsible for the efficient and safe movement of people during evacuations. Evacuation modelling can predict “bottlenecks” in the system before they are experienced, it can also be used to determine the impact of road closures due to flooding and the impact of phased evacuation on traffic loading. Being able to model alternative evacuation scenarios can lead to the establishment of appropriate evacuation policies and shelter strategies. With the increasing use of two dimensional hydraulic models that can provide accurate estimates of floodwater velocity and depth, and with the increased availability and accessibility of spatially-referenced population data and transport links, the modelling of mass evacuations for floods has increased. The model results can be used to assess the best locations of shelters and options for traffic management. This paper provides details of models and case studies carried out in the UK, North America and the Netherlands to estimate the evacuation times of tens of thousands of people that reside in flood risk areas. The models discussed in this paper range from “micro-models” to “macro-models”. Micro-models simulate each individual person at risk, and give a detailed representation of the evacuation routes. Coarser macro-models estimate evacuation times based on key parameters such as “lumped” population groups, the distance to the nearest shelter or higher ground, the evacuation route, and the average evacuation speed. The paper provides conclusions on the suitability of different evacuation models, as well as on the scale at which these models can be applied; their suitability for evacuation planning; and the “usefulness” of the results to various actors involved in the emergency planning process.

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