Davison, M. and Lumbroso, D. and Tagg, A. (2013) The use of a Monte-Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty in the estimates of loss of life from flooding using an agent based model. In: SRA-Europe 2013, 17-19 June 2013, Trondheim, Norway.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
This paper describes a Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis undertaken for two case study sites in England using the Life Safety Model (LSM) to assess the sources of uncertainty in loss of life estimates from floods for two cases studies. The LSM is an agent based model that simulates the dynamic interaction of people with the flood hazard. The LSM was applied to two case study areas. The first was Canvey Island, which is located in the Thames Estuary. The island is a low-lying area covering 18.5 km², with an average height of approximately 1 m below the mean high water level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation from the sea by a series of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the “Great North Sea Flood” that breached the defences and led to the deaths of 58 people and the destruction of several hundred houses. The LSM had been calibrated previously using this event. The second case study considered the failure of a 15 m high dam that stores 2.5 million m3 of water located in a steep valley directly upstream of town with a population of some 14,000 in the middle of England. A dam breach was assessed and the effectiveness of providing a warning on the risk to people was also estimated. The research used a Monte-Carlo analysis to estimate the sensitivity of evacuation times and loss of life for the two case studies to various parameters such as the physical characteristics of people (e.g. height, weight); parameters that affects the strengths of buildings and the stability of vehicles in floodwater. The work has also investigated how vertical evacuation can be used to reduce the risk to people.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | 22nd SRA-E Conference - Safe societies – coping with complexity and major risk |
| Subjects: | Floods > Flood impacts Floods > General Floods > Flood incident management |
| Divisions: | Floods |
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email i.services@hrwallingford.com |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Apr 2020 09:50 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Jun 2020 15:07 |
| URI: | http://eprints.hrwallingford.com/id/eprint/925 |
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