One hundred years of morphological change in the Thames Estuary. Impacts on tide levels and implications for flood risk management to 2100

Siggers, G. and Spearman, J. and Littlewood, M. and Donovan, B. (2006) One hundred years of morphological change in the Thames Estuary. Impacts on tide levels and implications for flood risk management to 2100. In: 41st Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 4 - 6 July 2006, York, UK.

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Abstract

An analysis of one hundred years of morphological changes has been undertaken in the Thames Estuary. The cumulative effect of these changes is seen to have led to an increase in the tide range from Tower Pier upstream to Richmond, with mean spring tide range under low fluvial flow conditions predicted to have increased by up to 1.1m (25%) at Richmond. High water levels in the Thames Estuary have been relatively insensitive to changes in morphology of the Outer Estuary. The effect of morphology changes on the propagation of extreme tide/surge events has been tested and found to be similar in location (increased high water levels in the Upper Estuary) but smaller in magnitude than for a mean spring tide. Finally, the implications of these findings for flood risk management in the future are considered.

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