Risks to people: Developing new approaches for flood hazard and vulnerability mapping

Flooding from rivers, estuaries and the sea poses a risk to people as well as causing significant economic impacts. In 1953 the North Sea floods caused approximately 2500 deaths across the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Germany and concentrations of fatalities have been associated with flash floods such as Lynmouth in Cornwall (1952, over 30 deaths). There were a number of fatalities associated with the Easter 1998 and Autumn 2000 floods in England and Wales (Kelman, 2003). In August 2004, a major airborne rescue operation was required to rescue victims of the Boscastle flood and in January 2005, the media reported 3 fatalities in flooding in Carlisle and surrounding areas.

A key Government objective for the Environment Agency is “to reduce the risks to people and to the developed and natural environment from flooding.” (Environment Agency Corporate Strategy, 2002-07). Over the last 50 years a wide ranges of flood risk management measures have reduced the risks to people in the UK. Nevertheless, flood risks cannot be completely eliminated and to support Government targets for flood risk management there is a requirement for methods to estimate the risks to people, as well as risks of economic and environmental damage. This paper describes a method for assessing and mapping risks to people that was developed within Defra/EA research project FD2321 “Risks to People Phase 2.” It introduces the concepts of flood hazard, area vulnerability and people vulnerability, provides an example of risks to people calculations for Carlisle and presents research recommendations for flood hazard and vulnerability mapping.