Use of field measurements to improve probabilistic wave overtopping forecasts

The paper investigates the practicalities and potential value of coupling offshore to nearshorewave models, and nearshore-wave and surge models to coastline overtopping models and floodrisk indicators. The available coupled models include Ensemble surge models, offshore wave models, hydrodynamic wave transformation models and empirical wave overtopping formulae. The uncertainty associated with an individual model output, and the propagation of this incertainty forward through the modelling chain is handled
through Monte Carlo simulation from either discrete or continuous probability distributions, based on the information available on each of the variables involved.
The paper will concentrate on the collection and analysis of measured overtopping discharges at a site in North-west England. At the same site inshore wave measurements will be recorded for selected high tide events. The results from these field measurements will be used to calibrate and
refine the Monte Carlo simulations.