Use of large datasets to support drought management planning and climate change assessments

Durant, M. and McBride, A. and Counsell, C. (2019) Use of large datasets to support drought management planning and climate change assessments. In: AWRA 2019, 16-19 June 2019, Nevada, USA.

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Abstract

Advantages and application of large stochastic and climate change datasets to drought and water supply management planning. Water is considered to be one of the main mechanisms through which people will experience climate change. As a consequence of climate change and population growth, the number of people estimated to become exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase sharply in the future. Concerns regarding the potential implications of extreme, previously not experienced, droughts are also increasing. Water supply planning in the UK has begun to move beyond using only the historic record to plan investments to maintain secure supplies. The UK has adopted the use of stochastically generated droughts to provide a more comprehensive understanding of resilience across a broad range of plausible drought events. Recent advancements in climate modelling captured within the latest UK Climate Projections 2018 could potentially begin to address the need for physically-based, plausible datasets that combine both natural climate variability and a changing climate in representing droughts of the future. This poster focusses on applications and advantages of stochastic and climate change datasets, and discusses some of the potential issues associated with their use. Solutions to these issues are also discussed.

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