Application and inter-comparison of estuary morphological models

Norton, P. and Manning, A.J. and Townend, I. and Lane, A. and Karunarathna, H. (2007) Application and inter-comparison of estuary morphological models. In: 42nd Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 3 - 5 July 2007, York, UK.

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Abstract

The Defra/EA project FD2107 has involved the development of hybrid estuary morphological models under the framework of the UK Estuaries Research Programme (ERP). The ultimate goal of this research project is to provide a suite of modelling tools and algorithms to assist with the assessment of flood risk in our estuaries. Progress towards this goal has been achieved through the development of a range of models capable of predicting estuarine morphological change for timescales of up to 50 years. The development and initial application of a hybrid regime model, carried out as part of the FD2107 project, is described in more detail by Wright and Townend (2006). This paper expands on the earlier work and presents the results of applying regime-based models to a wider range of UK estuaries (Humber, Blackwater, Thames, Southampton Water and Mersey) for a range of possible future climate scenarios. The reliability of the model predictions of future morphology is a key issue that has also been assessed as part of the investigation through the inter-comparison of alternative modelling approaches (eg. hybrid, bottom-up and top-down). Further demonstration of the proposed approach is provided through the application of standard hydrodynamic techniques using the predicted future estuary morphologies. The potential change in future flood risk within the selected estuaries can thus be evaluated. Through this approach it is has also been possible to assess the relative sensitivity of the estuaries to climate change and furthermore to identify regions within individual estuaries which are likely to be most at risk from future flooding.

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