A flood system risk analysis model with dynamic sub-element 2D inundation model, dynamic breach growth and life-loss

Gouldby, B.P. and Lhomme, J. and McGahey, C. and Panzeri, M. and Hassan, M. and Kakeh Burgada, N. and Magaña Orue, C. and Jamieson, S. and Wright, G. and van Damme, M. and Morris, M. (2012) A flood system risk analysis model with dynamic sub-element 2D inundation model, dynamic breach growth and life-loss. In: FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November 2012, Rotterdam.

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Abstract

Risk analysis models of fluvial and coastal flood systems have been in use for over a decade. They have been applied to support a wide range of flood risk management decisions, including long term strategic planning and shorter term asset management. Models that are currently applied in practice make a number of simplifying assumptions. The development of a new model that offers a major improvement over these methods is described. The new model incorporates: a unique dynamic 2D inundation model that captures sub-mesh element topography (RFSM EDA); a new computationally efficient model of embankment breach growth (AREBA) and extends the range of consequences considered to include the loss of life. The model has been applied on a pilot site to demonstrate its capabilities.

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